2026 regular season

Week 1

16 games · lock Wed, Sep 9, 6:00 PM ET · 16/16 final
‹ WkWk 2 ›

Win probability

Week complete.

  • Jake12 · max 12
    100.0%
  • BTN12 · max 12
    0.0%
  • Julie Nugent12 · max 12
    0.0%
  • Karen and Jim Harte11 · max 11
    0.0%
  • Susie11 · max 11
    0.0%
  • Greg carollo11 · max 11
    0.0%
  • Avery Brown10 · max 10
    0.0%
  • Jeanette Brown10 · max 10
    0.0%

What has to happen

The board is closed, the ink is dry, and Jake "The Probably gonna losers" has the last laugh with a name that aged into irony. Twelve points, ceiling twelve, and a tidy 100.0% to win the week. As safe as it gets: there are no games left, so nobody can catch him and he can't slip. The only thing that could dethrone Jake now is a spreadsheet error. Here's the twist, though: safe does not mean alone. BTN "BTN_Squared" and Julie Nugent "Show me your Jules" also finished on 12 points with a matching 12-point ceiling, yet the model gives them a cold 0.0%. That's the sim's way of telling you a tiebreaker already broke against them. Same score, no share of the trophy, which is the pool's version of doing all the work and getting none of the credit. The single game that mattered most is a moot point at this stage, because there are zero games left on the board and no swing games listed to argue over. Everything that could move a number already moved it. Whatever coin flips decided this week, they've landed and been counted. As for a dark-horse path back into it: there isn't one, and I won't invent it. With no games remaining, the trio at 11 — Karen and Jim Harte, Susie "Susie Wins," and Greg Carollo — have no ceiling left to climb, capped exactly where they sit. The chase pack at 10 is even further out of runway. Week 1 belongs to Jake outright; the only comeback available now is next week.