2026 regular season
Week 2
Win probability
Week complete.
- Dan Schinsky12 · max 12100.0%
- Braden Cecil11 · max 110.0%
- John Brady11 · max 110.0%
- Holly Schinsky11 · max 110.0%
- Hootie11 · max 110.0%
- Karen and Jim Harte11 · max 110.0%
- Susie11 · max 110.0%
- Jake10 · max 100.0%
What has to happen
With zero games left on the board, this isn't a race anymore, it's a certificate of completion. Dan Schinsky and "Third Down For What" have wrapped it up at 12 points, and the simulator agrees with a resounding 100.0%. When your current score equals your ceiling and it's still a point clear of the field, the drama is officially over. Dan is not sweating; Dan is signing autographs. Just how safe is he? As safe as arithmetic allows. There are no games left to play, so no one behind him can add a point. That's the difference between "heavily favored" and "already won," and Dan is firmly in the latter category. The single game that matters most is, mercifully, none of them, because there are none left to swing. The chunk of contenders stacked at 11 — Braden, John, Holly, Hootie, the Hartes, and Susie — all topped out one point short. Their ceilings say 11, Dan already sits at 12, and math does not do mercy. Six people tied for a very crowded second place is its own kind of story, but it's a runner-up story. As for a dark-horse path back into it, I'm contractually obligated to be honest: there isn't one. Everyone's current score already equals their ceiling, which means every scenario has resolved. The 11-point crowd would need a thirteenth game to appear out of thin air, and the 10-point trio down at the bottom would need two. Barring the Commissioner discovering a forgotten Monday nighter, the only comeback available is next week's.
