2026 regular season
Week 3
Win probability
Week complete.
- Brady Nugent11 · max 11100.0%
- Dan Schinsky10 · max 100.0%
- Greg carollo10 · max 100.0%
- Holly Schinsky10 · max 100.0%
- Julie Nugent10 · max 100.0%
- Carson Alnor9 · max 90.0%
- Braden Cecil9 · max 90.0%
- Hootie9 · max 90.0%
What has to happen
It's over, and it's not the fun kind of over. Brady Nugent sits at 11 points with every game already in the books, which means his ceiling and his floor are the same number: 11. When there's nothing left to play, 100 percent isn't a projection, it's a receipt. Brads Discord ran the table's math to zero drama. The chase pack tried, bless them. Dan Schinsky, Greg Carollo, Holly Schinsky, and Julie Nugent all finished on 10, a single point short and one game late. That's the cruelest tie in the room—four people knotted at second with nothing left to break the knot and nobody able to reach 11. Their ceiling of 10 tells the whole story: no path, no prayer, no next kickoff to bail them out. As for the single game that matters most, there isn't one, because there are zero games left on the board. Every swing that could have swung has already swung, and the only lineup anyone is rooting on now is the standings sheet. Whoever wanted a different outcome needed it hours ago. And the dark-horse path back into it? Karen and Jim down at 7 would need to conjure four points out of a slate that no longer exists—so unless the Commissioner discovers a game the simulator missed, the comeback trail dead-ends at the final whistle. Congratulations to Brady, condolences to the four who missed by a whisker, and everyone else, we'll see you in week 4 where the numbers are still negotiable.
