2026 regular season

Week 5

15 games · lock Thu, Oct 8, 6:00 PM ET · 15/15 final
‹ Wk 4Wk 6 ›

Win probability

Week complete.

  • Braden Cecil10 · max 10
    100.0%
  • Donnie Brown10 · max 10
    0.0%
  • BTN10 · max 10
    0.0%
  • Karen and Jim Harte9 · max 9
    0.0%
  • John Brady9 · max 9
    0.0%
  • Brennan H9 · max 9
    0.0%
  • Josh9 · max 9
    0.0%
  • Jeanette Brown9 · max 9
    0.0%

What has to happen

With all games off the board, this one is already in the books, so let's not pretend there's drama where there isn't. Braden Cecil sits at 10 points with a ceiling of 10, which is just a formal way of saying he can't gain more and nobody can catch him. Team Cecil is at 100.0% to win the week, and that figure is as safe as it gets: not a strong favorite, not a near-lock, but mathematically done. The reason it's locked is the pileup directly behind him. Donnie Brown and BTN are also parked at 10 points, but with ceilings of 10, they've maxed out and still only tied, not passed. A tie doesn't dethrone the leader here, so both read 0.0% despite being level on the scoreboard. That's the cruelest seat in the house: all the way to the summit and the door's already shut. There is no single swing game to agonize over, because there are zero games left. Nobody is rooting for anyone in anything, because there's nothing left to root on. The leverage table is empty for the simple reason that every outcome has already resolved. As for a dark-horse path back into it, I'd love to sell you one, but the numbers won't let me lie. The seven players stuck on 9 have ceilings of 9, and the two on 8 top out at 8, so none of them can even reach Cecil's 10, let alone clear it. The comeback trail requires games that no longer exist. Congratulations, Team Cecil.