Week 6

Avery Brown sits in front at 63.1%, but let's not fit him for the ring just yet. At three points with a ceiling of 11, he's leading a logjam, not lapping it. Marge in Charge is very much alive at 26.5% off the same three points and same ceiling, which tells you this gap is about which way a couple of coin-flip games break, not about Avery having locked anything down. Everybody behind the top two is a rounding error dressed up as a contender. The game that actually decides this is NO @ NYG, with a swing of 65.9 points — nothing else moves the needle like it. Avery needs New Orleans; Marge, Dan Schinsky, and Holly Schinsky are all pulling the other way for the Giants. So the headline matchup is essentially Avery versus the field, and Marge is the field's best-funded representative. Right behind it, DAL @ GB swings 63.3 points, and it's the same story with the uniforms changed: Avery wants Dallas while Marge and Braden Cecil want Green Bay. If Avery gets New Orleans and Dallas, this week is more or less a formality. The one tangled spot is PIT @ TB, worth 51.3 points of swing, where Avery and Braden suddenly agree — both need Pittsburgh — while Marge is the lone voice for Tampa Bay. That's the game where Marge's rooting interests split from Braden's, which is the kind of crack a chaser needs. As for a dark horse, Braden Cecil at 7.8% is the only name outside the top two with a real pulse, and his path is narrow but readable: he needs Green Bay in Dallas-Green Bay to knock Avery down, Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh-Tampa to climb himself up, and enough of the New Orleans-New York mess to break against Avery. It requires the chalk to misbehave in a specific sequence, but at a ceiling of 10 he's at least holding a ticket. Everyone from Dan Schinsky on down is buying a lottery scratcher and hoping.

• NO @ NYG±66 pts of odds

  Avery Brown needs NO · Dan Schinsky needs NYG · Holly Schinsky needs NYG · Margie needs NYG

• DAL @ GB±63 pts of odds

  Avery Brown needs DAL · Braden Cecil needs GB · Margie needs GB

• PIT @ TB±52 pts of odds

  Avery Brown needs PIT · Braden Cecil needs PIT · Margie needs TB

• CAR @ PHI±40 pts of odds

  Avery Brown needs CAR · Donnie Brown needs PHI · Greg carollo needs PHI · LoFo needs PHI · Margie needs CAR